Analysis of the 02-26-08 DraftTek Model Simulation Run for the NY Jets

This analysis will be a bit different from the usual analysis. There will be less analysis on the players projected to be selected and more analysis on perceived player values that have slipped through the cracks. I am looking for clues as to who might be the 2008 version of David Harris, ILB, NY Jets.

The combine is under way. Player draft grades are starting to change. There are still wide disparities in grades for some players. This is impacting the simulation model. This is starting to clear but remember, draft grades are a matter of opinion.

The current simulation run projects no change in terms of the scarcity and need for offensive tackles. Where the Jets currently sit in the draft, it may be very difficult to get a right tackle without reaching for one in the first round. The top two offensive tackles are still selected before the Jets get to pick. Three more tackles are picked before the Jets pick again in the second round. At pick #37 the Jets would be looking at selecting the sixth tackle in this draft which is a bit better than when the Jets were projected to be looking at the eighth tackle as per previous draft projections. By the end of the second round in the most recent simulation run, it is projected that only eight offensive tackles will have been selected overall. Previous simulations showed nine offensive tackles being selected at the same point in the draft.

Given the scarcity situation at the position, the perceived extreme need of the Jets, and the Nebraska connection between Carl Nicks and Asst Head Coach Callahan, the Jets are now projected to take an offensive tackle with their pick at the top of the second round of the draft. The model gives special consideration to making this selection by over riding all other model simulation parameters.

The projected selections are as follows:

#006 Vernon Gholston, DE/OLB, Ohio State.

#037 Carl Nicks, OT, Nebraska.

#068 Donnie Avery, WR, Houston.

#102 Beau Bell, ILB, UNLV.

Based on the projected Jets team needs, the projected selections from this draft simulation run provide immediate on the field help in areas of need.

Carl Nicks is perceived to be a significant reach (-18 point value) when selected at #37. He is projected to be taken at the bottom of the second round instead of the top of the second round. If the Jets want to draft Carl Nicks, they have little choice other than to draft him at the top of the second round as Carl Nicks does not project to be available when they select again. Selecting Carl Nicks at #37 has an opportunity cost. By selecting Carl Nicks, the Jets forgo selecting Dan Connor, ILB, Penn St. who projects to be a 13 point value had he been selected at #37 instead of being skipped. This would have been a 13 point value at a perceived position of need for the Jets. In this simulation run, the model suggests that Dan Connor would be the 2009 version of David Harris.

I have asked for a special what if simulation to be run. It would be the same simulation with one change, no over ride to select Carl Nicks. I am not sure if the special run can or will be done. If it is, I will comment on the results.

An extra pick in the second round of the draft would be very helpful in meeting perceived needs. This is considered a very deep draft by most accounts.

Be sure to go to the DraftTek.com website to see the entire simulation run.