Analysis of the 02-29-08 DraftTek Model Simulation Run for the NY Jets

Much has changed since this draft run. The Jets have traded away their 3rd and 5th round picks to add Kris Jenkins, NT, Carolina Panthers.

The current simulation run projects no change in terms of the scarcity and need for offensive tackles. Where the Jets currently sit in the draft, it may be very difficult to get a right tackle without reaching for one in the first round. The top two offensive tackles are still selected before the Jets get to pick. Three more tackles are picked before the Jets pick again in the second round. At pick #37 the Jets would be looking at selecting the sixth tackle in this draft which is a bit better than when the Jets were projected to be looking at the eighth tackle as per previous draft projections. By the end of the second round in the most recent simulation run, it is projected that only eight offensive tackles will have been selected overall. Previous simulations showed nine offensive tackles being selected at the same point in the draft.

Given the scarcity situation at the position, the perceived extreme need of the Jets, and the Nebraska connection between Carl Nicks and Asst Head Coach Callahan, the Jets are now projected to take an offensive tackle with their pick at the top of the second round of the draft. This model assumption is further validated given that the Jets have traded away their 3rd and 5th round picks. The model gives special consideration to making this selection by over riding all other model simulation parameters.

The projected selections are as follows:

#006 Vernon Gholston, DE/OLB, Ohio State. No change.

#037 Carl Nicks, OT, Nebraska. No change.

#099 Lavelle Hawkins, WR, California.

Based on the projected Jets team needs, the projected selections from this draft simulation run provide immediate on the field help in areas of need.

Carl Nicks is perceived to be a significant reach (-21 point value) when selected at #37. He is projected to be taken at the bottom of the second round instead of the top of the second round. If the Jets want to draft Carl Nicks, they have little choice other than to draft him at the top of the second round as Carl Nicks does not project to be available when they select again. Selecting Carl Nicks at #37 has an opportunity cost. In the previous iteration, by selecting Carl Nicks, the Jets forgo selecting Dan Connor, ILB, Penn St. who projects to be a 13 point value had he been selected at #37. In this simulation run, the model suggests that Dan Connor would not be available to the Jets at #37. Also of interest is that no significant value presents itself unless one is looking for a QB. This would lend credence to the assumption that the Jets might consider making a trade down as they could likely still land their guy in Nicks.

An extra pick in the second round of the draft would be very helpful in meeting perceived needs. This is considered a very deep draft by most accounts. An extra second round pick seems very unlikely at this stage. The draft pick realized in the Vilma trade was at best only a 3rd round pick for the 2009 draft.

Be sure to go to the DraftTek.com website to see the entire simulation run.