Analysis of the 03-24-08 DraftTek Mock Draft Model Simulation Run for the NY Jets

Sorry for the lack of new posts. At the same time, there has not been much news to discuss.

The current NY Jets’ team needs matrix remains set to allow the Jets to take the best player available. Period. This is called drafting from a position of strength. The areas of need still project to be WR, DB and ILB.

The more simulations runs that I see, the more I suspect that the Jets will try and trade down in the first round of the draft. There is no “official” commentary from the Jets as to what they are going to do in the draft. They are not going to tip their hand. Actions speak louder than words. At the same time, actions can be used to hide their intentions. The Jets have shown interest in both Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College and Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas. There have been visits to pro days and interviews. They have to do this even if they do not want these players. It is part of the game and improves their negotiating position. They will get more from the Cowboys if the Cowboys believe that the Jets want McFadden. It is that simple.

The projected selections are as follows:

#006 Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas.

#037 Jerod Mayo, ILB, Tennessee

#099 Tyrell Johnson, SS, Arkansas St.

#110 John David Booty, QB, USC

To me this simulation run really makes one think. I am guessing that the Jets are very active on draft day making trades and accumulating picks. In a deal with the Cowboys that netted only their picks at #22 and #28, the Jets would be looking at two wide receivers: Sweed and Hardy along with two cornerbacks: Talib and Cason. There is some player overlap in this scenario but it would be very likely that any 3 of the 4 aforementioned players would be available. There are other talented players projected to be available but these players meet perceived needs.

Assume that the Jets might be able to get Hardy and Talib and contemplate what the Jets might look like in 2008.

Be sure to go to www.DraftTek.com to see the entire simulation run.

Analysis of the 03-07-08 DraftTek Mock Draft Simulation Run for the NY Jets

Excuse me while I borrow something from a Bruce Springsteen song — “All those things that seemed so important, they vanish right into the air.”

I have spent a significant amount of time describing the projected scarcity of offensive tackles and how they projected to be selected relative to where the Jets selected in the draft. It would be foolish for me to think that “Tangini” read my scribblings but I am guessing that they saw the potential for the draft to pan out as projected by the DraftTek models. It seems unlikely that I will be writing about offensive tackles any further.

The current Jets team needs matrix is set to allow the Jets to take the best player available. Period. This is called drafting from a position of strength.

The projected selections are as follows:

#006 Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas.

#037 Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville.

#099 Jordy Nelson, WR, Kansas St.

#110 John Carlson, TE, Notre Dame.

To me this simulation run really makes one think. I am guessing that the Jets are very active on draft day making trades and accumulating picks. In a deal with the Cowboys that netted only their picks at #22 and #28, the Jets would be looking at three wide receivers: Sweed, Hardy and Thomas and three cornerbacks: Talib, Rodgers-Cromartie, and Cason. There is some player overlap in this scenario but it would be very likely that any 5 of the 6 aforementioned players would be available.

Assume that the Jets might be able to get Hardy and Rodgers-Cromartie and contemplate what the Jets might look like in 2008.

Although you think that it is not possible, but it could get even better. At pick #37 the Jets would be looking at the their choice of the second QB to come off of the board. This might also present an opportunity to trade down again!!!

Then again, maybe the Jets take both McFadden and Brohm? I don’t think so. Either way, this could be an epic off season for the Jets. One that fans could be talking about for the next 10 years.

Be sure to go to www.DraftTek.com to see the entire simulation run.

NY Jets 2008 Off Season Needs and Possible Player Moves Draft Tek Mock Simulation

Wow! Wow! Wow! I do not even know where to start. After doing nothing for months, within 4 days of the free agency and trade period starting “Tangini” have traded Vilma and Robertson for future draft picks, traded current year draft picks for Kris Jenkins, NT, and signed the following free agents: Alan Faneca, LG, Calvin Pace, OLB, and Damien Woodey, RT. Wow!

This has a major impact on the upcoming projected draft picture for the Jets. Anything is possible now. The Jets are now operating from a very flexible position of strength.

The original expectation was that the Jets would be looking for new starters at the following positions: LG, RT, WR. OLB, NT, ILB, and CB. We can cross LG, RT, OLB and NT off of that list. The new list of starters that the Jets might be looking for now looks like this: WR, ILB and CB. None of these looks to be a pressing need — more at potential improvement areas.

I have set the DraftTek team needs matrix to take the best available player at the following positions: RB, WR, ILB, CB and OT. I am not sure if the draft order has been updated for all added draft picks as the model is only updated on official announcements. I have not seen any official announcement of the Robertson trade.

There will be a model run tonight. Plenty to talk about on Tuesday. I am guessing that the DraftTek model will show that with Pick #6, the NY Jets select “Run DMC”.

Let’s see what happens.

Analysis of the 02-29-08 DraftTek Model Simulation Run for the NY Jets

Much has changed since this draft run. The Jets have traded away their 3rd and 5th round picks to add Kris Jenkins, NT, Carolina Panthers.

The current simulation run projects no change in terms of the scarcity and need for offensive tackles. Where the Jets currently sit in the draft, it may be very difficult to get a right tackle without reaching for one in the first round. The top two offensive tackles are still selected before the Jets get to pick. Three more tackles are picked before the Jets pick again in the second round. At pick #37 the Jets would be looking at selecting the sixth tackle in this draft which is a bit better than when the Jets were projected to be looking at the eighth tackle as per previous draft projections. By the end of the second round in the most recent simulation run, it is projected that only eight offensive tackles will have been selected overall. Previous simulations showed nine offensive tackles being selected at the same point in the draft.

Given the scarcity situation at the position, the perceived extreme need of the Jets, and the Nebraska connection between Carl Nicks and Asst Head Coach Callahan, the Jets are now projected to take an offensive tackle with their pick at the top of the second round of the draft. This model assumption is further validated given that the Jets have traded away their 3rd and 5th round picks. The model gives special consideration to making this selection by over riding all other model simulation parameters.

The projected selections are as follows:

#006 Vernon Gholston, DE/OLB, Ohio State. No change.

#037 Carl Nicks, OT, Nebraska. No change.

#099 Lavelle Hawkins, WR, California.

Based on the projected Jets team needs, the projected selections from this draft simulation run provide immediate on the field help in areas of need.

Carl Nicks is perceived to be a significant reach (-21 point value) when selected at #37. He is projected to be taken at the bottom of the second round instead of the top of the second round. If the Jets want to draft Carl Nicks, they have little choice other than to draft him at the top of the second round as Carl Nicks does not project to be available when they select again. Selecting Carl Nicks at #37 has an opportunity cost. In the previous iteration, by selecting Carl Nicks, the Jets forgo selecting Dan Connor, ILB, Penn St. who projects to be a 13 point value had he been selected at #37. In this simulation run, the model suggests that Dan Connor would not be available to the Jets at #37. Also of interest is that no significant value presents itself unless one is looking for a QB. This would lend credence to the assumption that the Jets might consider making a trade down as they could likely still land their guy in Nicks.

An extra pick in the second round of the draft would be very helpful in meeting perceived needs. This is considered a very deep draft by most accounts. An extra second round pick seems very unlikely at this stage. The draft pick realized in the Vilma trade was at best only a 3rd round pick for the 2009 draft.

Be sure to go to the DraftTek.com website to see the entire simulation run.

Analysis of the 02-26-08 DraftTek Model Simulation Run for the NY Jets

This analysis will be a bit different from the usual analysis. There will be less analysis on the players projected to be selected and more analysis on perceived player values that have slipped through the cracks. I am looking for clues as to who might be the 2008 version of David Harris, ILB, NY Jets.

The combine is under way. Player draft grades are starting to change. There are still wide disparities in grades for some players. This is impacting the simulation model. This is starting to clear but remember, draft grades are a matter of opinion.

The current simulation run projects no change in terms of the scarcity and need for offensive tackles. Where the Jets currently sit in the draft, it may be very difficult to get a right tackle without reaching for one in the first round. The top two offensive tackles are still selected before the Jets get to pick. Three more tackles are picked before the Jets pick again in the second round. At pick #37 the Jets would be looking at selecting the sixth tackle in this draft which is a bit better than when the Jets were projected to be looking at the eighth tackle as per previous draft projections. By the end of the second round in the most recent simulation run, it is projected that only eight offensive tackles will have been selected overall. Previous simulations showed nine offensive tackles being selected at the same point in the draft.

Given the scarcity situation at the position, the perceived extreme need of the Jets, and the Nebraska connection between Carl Nicks and Asst Head Coach Callahan, the Jets are now projected to take an offensive tackle with their pick at the top of the second round of the draft. The model gives special consideration to making this selection by over riding all other model simulation parameters.

The projected selections are as follows:

#006 Vernon Gholston, DE/OLB, Ohio State.

#037 Carl Nicks, OT, Nebraska.

#068 Donnie Avery, WR, Houston.

#102 Beau Bell, ILB, UNLV.

Based on the projected Jets team needs, the projected selections from this draft simulation run provide immediate on the field help in areas of need.

Carl Nicks is perceived to be a significant reach (-18 point value) when selected at #37. He is projected to be taken at the bottom of the second round instead of the top of the second round. If the Jets want to draft Carl Nicks, they have little choice other than to draft him at the top of the second round as Carl Nicks does not project to be available when they select again. Selecting Carl Nicks at #37 has an opportunity cost. By selecting Carl Nicks, the Jets forgo selecting Dan Connor, ILB, Penn St. who projects to be a 13 point value had he been selected at #37 instead of being skipped. This would have been a 13 point value at a perceived position of need for the Jets. In this simulation run, the model suggests that Dan Connor would be the 2009 version of David Harris.

I have asked for a special what if simulation to be run. It would be the same simulation with one change, no over ride to select Carl Nicks. I am not sure if the special run can or will be done. If it is, I will comment on the results.

An extra pick in the second round of the draft would be very helpful in meeting perceived needs. This is considered a very deep draft by most accounts.

Be sure to go to the DraftTek.com website to see the entire simulation run.

NY Jets 2008 Off Season Needs and Possible Player Moves Draft Tek Mock Simulation

The depression runs deeper? Still nothing material in terms of off season moves for the Jets. The perception is that the Jets are looking for new starters at LG, RT, WR OLB, NT, ILB and CB. I have the DraftTek team needs matrix for the Jets set to look for players to fill those 7 positions.

There have been changes to the position needs matrix for the upcoming model simulation and I am expecting the simulation results to be different. The general premise remains that the Jets will likely best improve the offense through free agency and the defense through the draft.

Free agency starts on Friday. Let’s see if the Jets can get a guard onto the roster. There are still several decent offensive guards available in free agency so I am optimistic that the Jets can fill this need outside of the draft.

Getting back to the draft. The simulation needs matrix has been set to avoid an overlap of players. Past simulations have generated multiple picks of DE’s and OLB’s. If the Jets are fortunate enough to draft Vernon Gholston, DE/OLB it is perceived that he would play OLB. Given such, there would be no need to draft another OLB. Going forward, this overlap should not appear. It might but only in a situation where an OLB was on the draft board who was considered an extremely high value relative to his draft position.

It remains impractical to think that the Jets will fill their need for a RT through free agency. I have altered the Jets team needs matrix to make a special consideration to taking an offensive tackle in the draft at the top of the second round when the Jets pick. The intended target is Carl Nicks, OT, Nebraska. This is a combination of filling a desperate team need with a player that the Jets coaching staff has a connection. The Nebraska connection between recently hired Assistant Head Coach/Offense Bill Callahan and Carl Nicks is too obvious to ignore. If Carl Nicks is available when the Jets pick in the second round, it is likely that the Jets will take him. He is not projected to be available at the top of the third round.

There have been some comments on expected trades by the Jets. I agree that there will be trades. Also, to the extent that the Jets can get an additional second round or third round pick, the Jets would be in much better shape. I think that it is a bit optimistic to think that a trade involving a recently injured Jonathan Vilma will result in a second round pick. At the same time, it would not shock me to see the Jets get a bottom of the round second round pick if they gave back a conditional pick. Vilma might not be traded until later this year as if he proves healthy his value would be much greater. A 2009 draft pick would not be out of the question. It is hard to say what the market is out there. An additional pick in the second round of this year’s draft would be useful in terms of adding a top flight WR. Remember, as currently set up, the Jets are expected to reach for Carl Nicks at the top of the second round. This precludes the Jets from getting a good relative value player at this spot. As I have mentioned, these are troubled times.

Player grades have been changed with the release of the results from the combine.

Let’s see what the next simulation run brings. It should be very interesting.

Analysis of the 02-22-08 DraftTek Model Simulation Run for the NY Jets

There are still some issues with the player database that will clear themselves up as time passes with revised draft grades being assigned to players after the combine and the pro days. The combine is under way.

The current simulation run shows no change in terms of the scarcity and need for offensive tackles. Where the Jets currently sit in the draft, it may be very difficult to get a right tackle without reaching for one in the first round. The top two offensive tackles are selected before the Jets get to pick. Three more tackles are picked before the Jets pick again in the second round. At pick #37 the Jets would be looking at selecting the sixth tackle in this draft which is a bit better than when the Jets were projected to be looking at the eighth. By the end of the second round, it is projected that nine offensive tackles will have been selected. Given the situation, the Jets are now projected to take an offensive tackle with their pick at the top of the second round of the draft.

Some comments on the players follows. (I am holding off on commenting on players taken subsequent to the fourth round until after the combine).

#006 Vernon Gholston, DE/OLB, Ohio State. Get used to seeing Vernon Gholston in this slot for the Jets. I do not think that it is going to change much unless he moves up on the boards and a team drafts him in spots #1 to #5. The talk is that he is going to be a great pro. He projects to be an “impact” player in the NFL and would be a great addition to the Jets defense. No change to any of my previous commentary.

#037 Carl Nicks, OT, Nebraska. Get used to seeing Carl Nicks in this spot for the Jets. If he is available, the Jets will draft him. The pressing need for an offensive tackle and the Nebraska connection between Carl Nicks and Assistant Head Coach/Offense Bill Callahan is too compelling to ignore.

#068 Cliff Avril, OLB, Purdue. It is not clear if this pick makes any sense from a positional needs standpoint. I am not sure that Cliff Avril would work as an inside linebacker.

#102 Adarius Bowman, WR, Oklahoma St. There is some thought that this would be a decent value pick for the Jets.

Based on the projected Jet team needs, the selections from this draft simulation run provide some immediate on the field help in areas of need.

Send me your comments. Comments help with model inputs.

Be sure to go to the DraftTek.com website to see the entire simulation run.

NY Jets 2008 Off Season Needs and Possible Player Moves Draft Tek Mock Simulation

The depression runs deep. I am not sure if it is the snow that is falling in New Jersey as I write this or the fact that another free agent tackle is no longer available. There are reports out that Sean Locklear, OT, Seahawks has signed a 5 year $32 million contract and will stay with the Seahawks. There is very little available in terms of quality free agent offensive tackles. Most never made it to free agency. As was discussed before, many teams have ample money to spend. Players are just not hitting the free agent market.

There have been changes to the position needs matrix for the upcoming model simulation. The general premise remains that the Jets will likely best improve the offense through free agency and the defense through the draft. So far, free agency has not gone well for the Jets. I know that it is early but some of the recent developments have not been helpful to our cause.

There are still several decent offensive guards available in free agency so I am optimistic that the Jets can fill this need outside of the draft. It is no longer practical to think that the Jets will fill their need for a RT through free agency. I have altered the Jets team needs matrix to make a special consideration to taking an offensive tackle in the draft at the top of the second round when the Jets pick. The intended target is Carl Nicks, OT, Nebraska. This is a combination of filling a desperate team need with a player that the Jets coaching staff has a connection. The Nebraska connection between recently hired Assistant Head Coach/Offense Bill Callahan and Carl Nicks is too obvious to ignore. If Carl Nicks is available when the Jets pick in the second round, it is likely that the Jets will take him. He is not projected to be available at the top of the third round.

Let’s see what the next simulation run brings.

DraftTek February 22, 2008 NFL Mock Draft Simulation for the New York Jets (N

The February 22, 2008, simulation shows the Jets drafting the following players:

First four rounds only –

#006 Vernon Gholston DE/OLB Ohio State University

#037 Carl Nicks, OT, Nebraska

#068 Cliff Avril, OLB, Purdue

#102 Adarius Bowman, WR, Oklahoma St.

Go to Drafttek.com to see the latest mock draft. You can get there using the link listed in the Blogroll.

I will have my commentary out later today.

Analysis of the 02-19-08 DraftTek Model Simulation Run for the NY Jets

Before I start on the draft simulation run –

If you are the agent for Jordan Gross, RT, Carolina Panthers you are likely as sad as everyone else in the Jets Nation. As expected the Carolina Panthers have put the Franchise Tag on Jordan Gross, RT. The best offensive tackle available via free agency is now off the market. Now, I am depressed. There are only three free agent offensive tackles who would likely be able to start right away available at this juncture: Flozell Adams, Cowboys; Sean Locklear, Seahawks; and Max Starks, Steelers.

There are still some issues with the player database that will clear themselves up as time passes with revised draft grades being assigned to players after the combine and the pro days. The combine starts on Wednesday.

Where the Jets currently sit in the draft, it may be very difficult to get a right tackle without reaching for one in the first round. The top two offensive tackles are selected before the Jets get to pick. Three more tackles are picked before the Jets pick again in the second round. Wow! At pick #38 the Jets would be looking at selecting the sixth tackle in this draft which is a bit better than when the Jets were projected to be looking at the eighth. By the end of the second round, it is projected that nine offensive tackles will have been selected.

The DraftTek.com simulations keep projecting that the Jets will end up with defensive players in the early rounds.

Enough on modeling. Some comments on the players follows. (I am holding off on commenting on players taken subsequent to the fourth round until after the combine).

#006 Vernon Gholston, DE/OLB, Ohio State. Get used to seeing Vernon Gholston in this slot for the Jets. I do not think that it is going to change much unless he moves up on the boards and a team drafts him in spots #1 to #5. The talk is that he is going to be a great pro. He projects to be an “impact” player in the NFL and would be a great addition to the Jets defense. No change to any of my previous commentary.

#037 Dan Connor, ILB, Penn St. Considered the top ILB by some. Very big. Very strong. Considered to be a great value pick at #038. In this draft simulation, he is the second true linebacker selected in the draft.  This excludes the DE/OLB types like Vernon Gholston.

#068 Bruce Davis, OLB, UCLA.  This pick makes no sense from a positional needs standpoint and I will make some fine tuning adjustments to the needs matrix to prevent this from happening in future runs.  Branden Albert, OG, Virginia or Lavelle Hawkins, WR,  California makes more sense as a pick at this stage.

#102 Duane Brown, OT, Va Tech.  This pick makes no sense either.  Duane Brown is a smallish OT at 290 lbs who projects to be a better fit in a zone blocking scheme.  The Jets do not use a zone blocking scheme.  There are still player ranking issues in the 100 to 175 range.  Many of these players are expected to be graded higher after the combine.

Based on the projected Jet team needs, the selections from this draft simulation run provide less immediate on the field help in areas of need. That is not what I am trying to get out of the model.  I will do some fine tuning before the next simulation run.

Send me your comments. Comments help with model inputs.

Be sure to go to the DraftTek.com website to see the entire simulation run.